課程資訊
課程名稱
序率水文氣候模擬
Stochastic Hydroclimatic Modeling and Simulation 
開課學期
110-2 
授課對象
生物環境系統工程學研究所  
授課教師
鄭克聲 
課號
BSE5183 
課程識別碼
602EU3240 
班次
01 
學分
3.0 
全/半年
半年 
必/選修
選修 
上課時間
星期三2,3,4(9:10~12:10) 
上課地點
農工繪圖室 
備註
本課程以英語授課。
總人數上限:60人 
課程網頁
https://cool.ntu.edu.tw/courses/11945/assignments/syllabus 
課程簡介影片
 
核心能力關聯
核心能力與課程規劃關聯圖
課程大綱
為確保您我的權利,請尊重智慧財產權及不得非法影印
課程概述

Hydrology and climatology are two closely related branches of earth science. Almost all variables in hydrological and/or climatological processes exhibit certain degree of randomness. Either from a scientific or engineering point of view, understanding and characterizing the random nature of hydroclimatic processes enables us to make sound decisions for water management and disaster prevention. In this course, students will learn step by step from characterizing and simulating a single random variable to simulation of a spatiotemporal random field which is composed of many correlated random variables in space and in time. Stochastic simulation will be highly emphasized in class since it is the foundation for probability-based risk assessment. Familiarity of stochastic simulation will open a wide window of potential research subjects and applications to students. 

課程目標
1. To introduce fundamental concept of stochastic modeling, and their applications.
2. To demonstrate the stochastic nature of hydroclimatic processes.
3. To discuss the uncertainty involved in model parameter estimation and introduce the techniques of stochastic simulation for quantifying uncertainties.
4. To demonstrate stochastic modeling of hydroclimatic processes.
5. To demonstrate practical applications of stochastic modeling/simulation for water resources management and risk assessment. 
課程要求
Familiarity of R programing, statistics 
預期每週課後學習時數
 
Office Hours
另約時間 
指定閱讀
 
參考書目
 
評量方式
(僅供參考)
   
課程進度
週次
日期
單元主題
Week 1
2/16  Introduction to hydrological and climatological time series 
Week 2
2/23  Time series modeling of hydroclimatic processes – Autoregressive models 
Week 3
3/2  Long memory processes 
Week 4
3/9  Stochastic climate models 
Week 5
3/16  R for stochastic simulation 
Week 6
3/23  Fundamentals of frequency analysis 
Week 7
3/30  Parameter estimation 
Week 8
4/6  Test for randomness, Trend Detection, and Goodness-of-fit test 
Week 9
4/13  Midterm exam 
Week 10
4/20  Introduction of the mini-project 
Week 11
4/27  Geostatistics – semivariogram modeling 
Week 12
5/4  Geostatistics – Spatial estimation 
Week 13
5/11  Non-Gaussian random field simulation 
Week 14
5/18  Spatiotemporal random field modeling and simulation 
Week 15
5/25  Drought monitoring and early warning 
Week 16
6/1  Spatiotemporal simulation of rainfall extremes  
Week 17
6/8  Flood risk mapping 
Week 18
6/15  Mini-project final presentation